This isn’t Mario Cristobal’s first rodeo. In fact, this is his third time around the corral that is being a first time head coach at a program – he’s done this at FIU, Oregon and now Miami. No two programs are the same and if you did a deep dive you could compile an exhaustive list of differences between not only the different teams that Mario has inherited but also the state of the program when he took on the job. FIU was borderline a dead program. Oregon was a place that had recently tasted success. Miami has been mediocre for two decades but has a renewed commitment from the administration for a resurgence. With all that being said, there are usually parallels to be found between the experiences. Most people who cover the Canes are providing midseason grades which is a great way to take the temperature of the season but I wanted to look at how that temperature compares to Mario’s previous stop at the same juncture. That is the basis of this article – Oregon 2018 vs Miami 2022 through the first six weeks. Let’s see how they stack up.
The Inheritance
Oregon – Mario was elevated to the Head Coach position after serving as interim Head Coach after Willie Taggart was hired away by Florida State. In Taggart’s lone season at the helm (2017) the Ducks seemingly took a small step forward as a program. They finished the year at 7-6 (4-5 in conference play) and were slated to welcome in a Top 15 recruiting class that was headlined by Penei Sewell – that certainly worked out well. There was talent on the roster, especially at quarterback and running back, but much of it was untapped. The team was facing coaching turnover quicker than anyone expected and they needed an identity.
Miami – The story has been the same in Coral Gables for quite some time now. A coach is hired, usually with more questions than answers about how he’d succeed, he’d have all the hype to begin but after a few seasons that hype is all but dead and many in the fanbase and administration are ready to move on. 2021 was Manny Diaz’ third, and ultimately his final, season as the head man over the Canes program. In that three year stint he had realized mild success on the field (capping out at a year two record of 8-3), on the recruiting trail (a Top 12 2021 class), and better investment from the university relative to prior years (mostly thanks to Mark Richt). Manny’s demise was an inability to win consistently, win big games, or even keep his defensive units elite as he had done as the Defensive Coordinator. The University was infamously called out by ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit for “failing” it’s football program which got the attention of the university President and sparked a commitment of resources to help “bring the U back”. New money being tossed around, some highly regarded recruits in the locker room, and a quarterback who finished the prior season as hot as any signal caller in America – enter Mario Cristobal.
Out of Conference Games
Oregon – The start of the 2018 season was…soft…for the Ducks. They opened things up with all of their out of conference matchups which were against Bowling Green, Portland State, and San Jose State. Tune-up games, if you will, are a pleasant way for a coach to open up the year while figuring out who will really be “guys” for the meat of the season and the team figures out who it will be. All three games ended up in a victory for Mario&Co even though the San Jose final score ended up being a little closer than most would’ve liked after some garbage time points were put up by the Spartans. Oregon simply did what it needed to do against these teams.
Miami – The Canes saw their 2022 year begin a little differently. There were the usual FCS and G5 opponents on the schedule, similar to Oregon in 2018, but there were two critical differences – 1) a trip to College Station in Week 3 to face then #24 Texas A&M and 2) a god awful loss to Middle Tennessee State. The matchup against TAMU went surprisingly well on the field with the Canes outmatching the Aggies in nearly every major statistical category except points and thus Mario got his first L as the Miami HC. That wasn’t so terrible. What was terrible was the showing his team put up the following week against visiting MTSU where they were flat out boat raced to the tune of a 45-31 beatdown – the final score isn’t as bad as the game was if you can believe it. Miami did not handle business in out of conference play.
Conference Matchups
Oregon – Back-to-back-to-back conference games against ranked conference opponents is a tough way to open your slate but that’s exactly what was tee’d up for the Ducks. Bright side? Two of the three were in Eugene and the team was able to come out of that run at 2-1. Stanford and Washington were both ranked #7 in the country when Oregon faced them two weeks apart with #24 Cal sandwiched in between - that’s impressive honestly. In the lone loss, against Stanford, Oregon played well with a chance to win the game but in the end they fell by just a touchdown difference. As a coach still settling in it’s hard to ask for better results.
Miami – North Carolina and Drake Maye followed by a trip to Virginia Tech for their homecoming. That’s how these 2022 Canes began conference play and through those two they sit at 1-1 in the ACC Coastal. A bye week before the UNC game allowed Tyler Van Dyke and the offense to catch their stride so he was able to light up that Tarheel secondary to the beat of 496(!) passing yards. The downside is that their inability to finish drives with touchdowns still lingered so the Canes only mustered 24 points and loss by a field goal. Playing at Virginia Tech has never been easy for Miami. There’s something about that place that makes it tricky so going in there and coming out with a victory, isn’t anything to write home about especially in recent years, garners a slight sigh of relief by the Miami faithful. TVD and the receivers carried over their juice from the UNC game, hello Colbie Young, which propelled the team to an early lead that they were able to cling to through the finish. 20-14 is nothing spectacular but when you’re playing without 11 starters/contributors and have to overcome 17 penalties for 159 yards you’ll take that dub. Not a great start to conference competition but good enough…maybe?
And then what?
Oregon – Phil Knight’s favorites would go on to finish their regular season 8-4 and get a Redbox Bowl win over Michigan State for a cumulative record of 9-4. After starting 2-1 in conference play they dropped their next two such games and would later fall to Utah for a final standing of 5-4. That would be enough to springboard them to nabbing a Top 10 recruiting class and, more importantly, set the table for a 2019 season that would see a big step forward.
Miami – Time will tell. We don’t know what the rest of the season will be. They still have a couple of big games left to be played – a trip to Clemson and a home game against FSU – but aside from those two games they will likely be favored to win according to Las Vegas and, thus, have every opportunity to win each week. Should that be expected? Probably not based on what we’ve seen so far. The question is, though, can they win enough to finish strong in recruiting and convince the playmakers they have to return for 2023?
Conclusion
The situations are certainly different but it doesn’t take the Law & Order SVU detectives to find some links between the two. Both times Mario inherited teams that had been underachieving relative to what their roster said they should be able to do and both had a highly touted Quarterback to help lead the way – some questioned how Herbert was used at first and the same questions have arisen with TVD. Neither team truly had an identity and they certainly were not structured to do what Mario really wants to accomplish which is mainly play a physical brand of football that controls games and translates to how the biggest of games are won in the sport. At Oregon, Coach Cristobal stumbled a little in year one, more on the backend than the fore, but when you step back and look at what that season setup you see that he has the ability to lay the early groundwork for success later. Growing pains and tough lessons are to be expected and while they didn’t come in Week 4 for the 2018 Ducks, they did come. Miami has started taking those lumps early but if those losses are turned into lessons learned they may be better for it in the long run. Nobody is demanding a Playoff caliber season so, as previously stated, the biggest question is, can Mario maximize what he’s got and win enough games to secure a Top 10-12 recruiting class and win over the trust of the difference makers so that they return to suit up for him next season? Like Kodak said, “I hope so”.
Go Canes.
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